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Dec 5, 2012
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period well before the fiscal cliff concerns became center stage. i think those economic detier a's, components probably lead to reduced employment, and reduced consumers spending starting in the first quarter. this is an economic deterioration, probably amplified by the policy concerns, but nonetheless that has occurred, and is forcing our earnings numbers lower. we're now at 10 as a good example. >> you've managed to make adam parker look like a bull. you're looking for 1390 in the s&p for next year. he had 1167, but he's looking to 1434. >> so far, i think there are a number of folks that have yet to come out, but unfortunately we have to live with that status for a while. quite frankly investors are not being paid a ton. we start to rebound -- we'll have to get more optimistic. >>> good to talk with you as always. >> thanks for having me. >> see you soon. >>> what's going on with this rally? up 125 on the dow. so the kind of stocks that are moving today? >> i think it's really important to keep in mind so much of this year, when they write the t
period well before the fiscal cliff concerns became center stage. i think those economic detier a's, components probably lead to reduced employment, and reduced consumers spending starting in the first quarter. this is an economic deterioration, probably amplified by the policy concerns, but nonetheless that has occurred, and is forcing our earnings numbers lower. we're now at 10 as a good example. >> you've managed to make adam parker look like a bull. you're looking for 1390 in the...
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Dec 3, 2012
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tax hikes and spending cuts. notice i did not call it the fiscal cliff. so ultimately which wins out? let's ask gina sanchez, director of equity and asset allocation at rubini global economics. dan, i know you've been traveling, london, san fran, all parts in between last couple of weeks. how concerned are your clients about what's going to happen on january 1st? >> it's not so much that they're concerned about what happens on january 1st because i think the bulk of our meetings have focused on the fact that this isn't really a cliff so much as a lot of people have been saying a slope. more importantly to your first question, i have been on the road for the better part of 2 1/2 months now. i don't really get many questions or have many debates about greece or spain anymore. i think there's definitely a back burner element to what's going on in europe as people focus whether it happens on january 1st or not on the fiscal cliff. >> let me follow up with that real quick. here's the thing -- the greek situation, which was driving the market negativity a few m
tax hikes and spending cuts. notice i did not call it the fiscal cliff. so ultimately which wins out? let's ask gina sanchez, director of equity and asset allocation at rubini global economics. dan, i know you've been traveling, london, san fran, all parts in between last couple of weeks. how concerned are your clients about what's going to happen on january 1st? >> it's not so much that they're concerned about what happens on january 1st because i think the bulk of our meetings have...
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Dec 4, 2012
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. >>> the fast-approaching fiscal cliff causing a lot of nervousness among businesses. the uncertainty over taxes causing many of them to pull back on spending and hiring, especially among the small manufacturing companies. our phil lebeau with new and exclusive data on that very subject. what do the numbers look like, phil? >> not pretty, sue. we talked with the folks at pay net, who track about 20 million loans involving 17 million small businesses and essentially, what they have found going back and looking at the data in the second quarter is essentially, this summer, a real pull back by small manufacturers, cutting investment in plants and equipment by 50%. the transportation equipment manufacturing sector, in particular that he saw a big dropoff, roughly 33%. when you take a look at small manufacturers overall, look at the end there. you see that dip there, going below the dotted line? that shows they have gone into negative territory in the second quarter when it comes to investment. the one silver lining here is small manufacturers, because they cut back, they a
. >>> the fast-approaching fiscal cliff causing a lot of nervousness among businesses. the uncertainty over taxes causing many of them to pull back on spending and hiring, especially among the small manufacturing companies. our phil lebeau with new and exclusive data on that very subject. what do the numbers look like, phil? >> not pretty, sue. we talked with the folks at pay net, who track about 20 million loans involving 17 million small businesses and essentially, what they...
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Nov 30, 2012
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cliff meetings. many of the executives saying that the white house sounded resounding resoundingly reasonable when describing plans to address the debt and deficit. >> so was this proposal the white house made yesterday with more spending and very few spending cuts, was that what mr. sorenson was expecting out of the gate? he joins us on the telephone with his thoughts. good to have you with us. >> glad to be with you. >> when you were with the other ceos at the white house, does it jive with what we're hearing about that made mitch mcconnell laugh yesterday? are those two plans one in the same? >> well, i'm hopeful that what's happening in the media is posturing by both parties and doesn't reflect where either party thinks a deal will end up. i think what the president talked with us about on wednesday afternoon was much more a sense of where things ought to end up, and that was, i think, somewhat different than it sounds like what was proposed. >> so you didn't hear about the tax increase for the w
cliff meetings. many of the executives saying that the white house sounded resounding resoundingly reasonable when describing plans to address the debt and deficit. >> so was this proposal the white house made yesterday with more spending and very few spending cuts, was that what mr. sorenson was expecting out of the gate? he joins us on the telephone with his thoughts. good to have you with us. >> glad to be with you. >> when you were with the other ceos at the white house,...
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Dec 5, 2012
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cuts that would come at the end of the year if we go over the fiscal cliff. the white house saying they don't expect we will. they still hope it can be prevented, but they have to start planning. also, speaker of the house john boehner meeting with small business leaders on capitol hill where he reiterated some of his key points. again, just within the past hour. take a listen. >> business owners with us today are here to highlight president obama's demand to raise tax rates instead of cutting spending. his plan will hurt nearly 1 million small businesses around our country. that will affect hundreds of thousands of jobs. >> reporter: and guys, there are republicans here on capitol hill who are urging the speaker to cut a deal with the president. i talked to one of the earliest republicans to say, you know what, let's take a the president up on his offer to extend the bush tax cuts for everybody under $250,000 and at least take that uncertainty off the table and then continue to negotiate the rest to have later. some of the republicans are now coalessing arou
cuts that would come at the end of the year if we go over the fiscal cliff. the white house saying they don't expect we will. they still hope it can be prevented, but they have to start planning. also, speaker of the house john boehner meeting with small business leaders on capitol hill where he reiterated some of his key points. again, just within the past hour. take a listen. >> business owners with us today are here to highlight president obama's demand to raise tax rates instead of...
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Nov 29, 2012
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the fiscal cliff? >> there's a framework that we presented to the white house two weeks ago. the framework is -- has been agreed to in terms of really a down payment on the end of this year. now, that would include spending cuts and it would include revenue. setting up a process for entitlement reform for next year and tax reform for next year. but -- but -- but this is way out of balance. and not a recognition on the part of the white house about the serious spending problem that we have. >> faced with the prospect of going over the fiscal cliff, which you just called serious business, or extending the lower tax rates and not the upper ones, which one would you choose? >> i'm going to do everything i can to avoid putting the american economy, the american people, through the fiasco of going over the fiscal cliff. >> which is worse, though, for the economy? >> what's that point of balance you just spoke about? could you put a debt limit increase in the overall package? >> as i told the president a coup
the fiscal cliff? >> there's a framework that we presented to the white house two weeks ago. the framework is -- has been agreed to in terms of really a down payment on the end of this year. now, that would include spending cuts and it would include revenue. setting up a process for entitlement reform for next year and tax reform for next year. but -- but -- but this is way out of balance. and not a recognition on the part of the white house about the serious spending problem that we...
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Nov 30, 2012
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that is not good news as we approach the fiscal cliff. specifically, what areas would you be willing to compromise on in terms of spending or in terms of the tax proposals that are out there to try and get this thing solved? >> well, first of all, in terms of speaker boehner's comments, i think we have to recognize there is a certain choreography that goes on in a negotiation, as might be expected. after the leak the leadership got together and said the right things. then there's going to be a distancing as the difficult terms are negotiated until we come together again. i'm kf didnconfident we will an avoid the fiscal cliff. i recognize we'll have to give, as well as the other side, but i do completely agree with the president that the election was about something and one of the center front issues was whether those that have done well in the last decade should be called upon to do a little more in terms of helping to pay down our deficit and debt. i think the electorate answers that question so that's got to play a role in the negotiati
that is not good news as we approach the fiscal cliff. specifically, what areas would you be willing to compromise on in terms of spending or in terms of the tax proposals that are out there to try and get this thing solved? >> well, first of all, in terms of speaker boehner's comments, i think we have to recognize there is a certain choreography that goes on in a negotiation, as might be expected. after the leak the leadership got together and said the right things. then there's going to...
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Dec 3, 2012
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the responsibilities on the fiscal cliff -- if the program put in place is more taxes and big spending cuts, which will push us toward a recession, forgive it. and that's what we're getting. more taxes and big spending cuts. so the idea here is this sort of overall concern that the fiscal cliff issue, even if it's resolved, means more austerity. and that's a problem overall for the markets here. take a look, though. we've held up reasonably well in the ism manufacturing. this goes back for the last several years. the big concern here is the trend basically has been down. we've been sideways for a couple months. and now four out of six months showing contraction. in terms of the market, we're still continuing to hold up pretty well. you notice we don't get any real panic here. that's because of the seasonal time of the year, partly. december to january. very big, strong two-month combination. a lot of people try to get in december, ahead of -- beginning of the month buying in january. the news has been manageable in europe. you heard from simon, middle east has been a bit calmer in the
the responsibilities on the fiscal cliff -- if the program put in place is more taxes and big spending cuts, which will push us toward a recession, forgive it. and that's what we're getting. more taxes and big spending cuts. so the idea here is this sort of overall concern that the fiscal cliff issue, even if it's resolved, means more austerity. and that's a problem overall for the markets here. take a look, though. we've held up reasonably well in the ism manufacturing. this goes back for the...
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Nov 30, 2012
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. >>> if we go over the fiscal cliff, global business travel association estimates that u.s. biz travel spending will take a $20 billion hit in the short term. but how about the long term outlook? find out next. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro. >>> what are the long term effects for business travel if the economy falls off the fiscal cliff? the gbta predicts the reduced deficits and lower interest rates will lead to growth in the economy and an increase in business travel spending. >>> welcome back. now to the weather channel. reynolds wolf is standing by. what is happening around the country today? >> the story is all west. everything is taking place out west. rain, some strong winds, even some snow. some places snow getting
. >>> if we go over the fiscal cliff, global business travel association estimates that u.s. biz travel spending will take a $20 billion hit in the short term. but how about the long term outlook? find out next. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the...
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Nov 29, 2012
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. >> so do you think we go off the fiscal cliff? >> no. all you've got to do -- you know what you've got to do on the tax side. that's simple. you have to palass a law that ss the law has to be overwritten. >> and what would be your position on that? >> i think it's the simple thing to do. obviously do what the president is saying, you know. he ran a campaign on it. the legitimacy of that. if you've got to act in three weeks, you're not going to revise the income tax code in three weeks. it may be perfectly legitimate. i think that both. personal and corporate need a lot of thought and a lot of revision. they're both broken. but you're not going to do that in three weeks. the challenge i see is in three weeks you've got to have some convincing balance of the tax side, the revenue side, with the expenditure side. it's inherent. you can't change the expenditures in three weeks. you can indicate intentions, but you can't -- >> what do you think happens then? >> i think you get some understanding about the kind of framework for dealing with th
. >> so do you think we go off the fiscal cliff? >> no. all you've got to do -- you know what you've got to do on the tax side. that's simple. you have to palass a law that ss the law has to be overwritten. >> and what would be your position on that? >> i think it's the simple thing to do. obviously do what the president is saying, you know. he ran a campaign on it. the legitimacy of that. if you've got to act in three weeks, you're not going to revise the income tax...
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Nov 29, 2012
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plus we had the election and fiscal cliff oncoming. with that, we still got over 2% growth. so even with some kind of drag from higher taxes and spending into next year, without a lot of those -- those severe head winds, you know, i just don't see how with a global -- coordinated global monetary easing policy from the central banks, how you're going to have a worser economy next year and therefore lower profits. >> joe? or josh? >> hi, tony. josh brown. i'm just curious, if you took a look at that gdp third quarter revision from this morning, one of the things i think jumped out most is that really all of the improvement comes as a result of both federal spending and then the other thing -- then the other thing that people don't want to see which is a lot of inventory restocking which i understand is seasonal. but now that's on the backs of the consumers, actually, taking those products out of stores to their homes. are we really going to be able to say that that was a good upward revision? even though the number went up? >> no. frankly, the market would have already priced
plus we had the election and fiscal cliff oncoming. with that, we still got over 2% growth. so even with some kind of drag from higher taxes and spending into next year, without a lot of those -- those severe head winds, you know, i just don't see how with a global -- coordinated global monetary easing policy from the central banks, how you're going to have a worser economy next year and therefore lower profits. >> joe? or josh? >> hi, tony. josh brown. i'm just curious, if you took...
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Dec 4, 2012
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we want to make sure we don't go over the fiscal cliff and find spending cuts to control the growth of government to save what we need to do. >> you mention bowles changing his tune. he does say in his words circumstances have changed. it's up to negotiators to figure out where the middle ground is today. do you think that middle ground moved in any direction as a result of the election? >> well, i think one thing you have to see is you have status quote. president won re-election. republicans kept the majority in the house. i think you saw where the republicans went right after the election. you had the speaker say you asked for revenue. here's revenue. if the president asked for 800 billion in revenue, we're providing it in a way that we believe is a better growth to protect small business. at the same time the president said it has to be a balanced approach. two for one. if you watch for geithner proposed, new stimulus program and others, the spending increases. you won't go after spending cuts of what we've been trying to get to. >> congressman, jim cramer here. i worry that what y
we want to make sure we don't go over the fiscal cliff and find spending cuts to control the growth of government to save what we need to do. >> you mention bowles changing his tune. he does say in his words circumstances have changed. it's up to negotiators to figure out where the middle ground is today. do you think that middle ground moved in any direction as a result of the election? >> well, i think one thing you have to see is you have status quote. president won re-election....
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Nov 30, 2012
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you get a fiscal cliff deal, you'll have tax increases and spending cuts. they'll cut 1%, 1.5% off gdp. that's not good for stock market in 2013. you don't get a deal, you get mandatory spending cuts that will be worse. meantime, there are shorter term worries. how about getting through today? how do you go long or short here today when over the weekend anybody -- i mean almost anybody, can appear on a sunday talk show and make some inflammatory comment about the fiscal cliff not working, it's a mess, it's never going to happen and then you wake up and you're down 15 points monday morning. that's a problem figuring out what to do over the weekend. it could go the other way. generally it's a little bit more on the gloomy side. then you have the problem with december. we're going into the last month. today is the last day of november. people are behind the curve. a shocking number of people i spoke to are below whatever their benchmark is. do you lighten up? do you stay long what you got? it's hard to maneuver around because you need to get outperformance. yo
you get a fiscal cliff deal, you'll have tax increases and spending cuts. they'll cut 1%, 1.5% off gdp. that's not good for stock market in 2013. you don't get a deal, you get mandatory spending cuts that will be worse. meantime, there are shorter term worries. how about getting through today? how do you go long or short here today when over the weekend anybody -- i mean almost anybody, can appear on a sunday talk show and make some inflammatory comment about the fiscal cliff not working, it's...
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Dec 6, 2012
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the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically week and counting before you think the equity market really drops significantly? >> if we do get a deal done do, we just maintain the 2% that we're stuck in with the high unemployment and not go down? or does it actually allow us to start growing again? is anybody talking growth? >> we're talking growth. >> is it possible to ever get back to that in this environment? >> it is. you have a lot of problems with the piece. >> do you briyou believe if you rote deficit -- two different ways. you either keep the government that you
the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically...
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Dec 4, 2012
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the fiscal cliff. the president is counting on that. >> which republicans? boehner doesn't get -- some of these guys go back to the auto parts shop where they came from before they were a tea party republican, wherever they -- you can't -- it's not a monday know lit. you can't get mad at the house. >> people pointed out some of the republicans were there and congress don't care. >> no, why would they? >> i don't necessarily think president obama cares that much either. his leg legacy is about obamacare, redistribution. and you can't control the economy. you can divide the pie better, but it will have these cycles. bush messed things up. i did the best i could, but he'll redistribute and that will happen, we'll spread the wealth around. and i don't think he cares that much about it. >> you don't think he cares about -- >> his chief of staff during the cry says said you'll be -- this is job one, the crisis. and he go that's not enough. he wants to be transformative. i don't know. we'll see. i asked the f
the fiscal cliff. the president is counting on that. >> which republicans? boehner doesn't get -- some of these guys go back to the auto parts shop where they came from before they were a tea party republican, wherever they -- you can't -- it's not a monday know lit. you can't get mad at the house. >> people pointed out some of the republicans were there and congress don't care. >> no, why would they? >> i don't necessarily think president obama cares that much either....